On Thursday, May, at 02:00 am Beijing time, the Fed released tU.S. crude oil inventories do not include strategic oil reserveshe Beige Book of the Economic Sentiment Report. Later, at 0:00 Beijing time, the Fed held a public meeting to consider a proposal to amend the Volcker rule prohibiting banks from conducting proprietary trading.
However, Trump’s purpose may be more than that, because OPEC itself has a heavy responsibility due to the production reduction agreement. At this time, how can OPEC have more spare capacity to take care of Iran’s supply gap? And there is a country that has sufficient crude oil supply. That is the United States. If the United States fills the gap in Iran’s crude oil supply, isn’t it just right? Someone will definitely ask, isn’t it meaningless that the US sanctions on the one hand caused Iran’s supply gap, and on the other hand it helped Iran to close the gap.
A Gulf source told the media that OPEC and other major oil-producing countries will hold a meeting in Vienna on June 22 to study many options to ensure the rebalancing of the oil market. Any action will be carried out after the 24 countries have negotiated and reached a consensus, the source told Reuters.
In terms of data, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA showed that the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by more than 5.7 million barrels from the week to May 8. At the same time, the U.S. domestic crude oil production recorded growth for the first consecutive week, continuing to record a historical increase. new highs.
Saudi Arabia and Russia plan to increase the crude oil production of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries by approximately 0 million barrels per day. The Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia said on Friday that Riyadh and Moscow are preparing to gradually withdraw from crude oil production cuts to quell market concerns about crude oil supply. Any measures will be gradual so as not to have too much impact on the market.
According to data released by Hughes on Friday, June 22, as of the week of June 22, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased to 862, which was the first decline after two consecutive weeks of increase. So far this month, the number of active oil rigs in the United States has only increased, which is the smallest monthly increase since the decrease of 2 in the month, confirming analysts’ view that the potential for increasing the number of active oil rigs in the United States has been exhausted. NeverthelessU.S. crude oil inventories do not include strategic oil reserves, the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA issued a report earlier that it is expected that the U.S. shale oil production in July will increase by 10,000 barrels/day to 740,000 barrels/day, which is 80,000 barrels/day higher than in June.
Recently, the crude oil market is facing a huge short pressure, that is, OPEC's production cut or end early. This was originally the market began to worry after the crazy oil production in the United States at the beginning of the year, but later OPEC announced that it would not be because of the crazy oil production in the United States. The production cut was ended early, and the production cut was guaranteed to be maintained this year or even extended to next year. However, just a few months later, the United States suddenly opened a huge crude oil gap in the Middle East. This seems to be a huge benefit for crude oil, but it is actually a huge trap against OPEC. OPEC must end production cuts to fill this gap, so the market's worries have soared. OPEC's production increase directly means the end of the crude oil rally.
The IEA estimates that non-OEPC production in 208 will increase by 800,000 barrels per day, more than double the 700,000 barrels per day in 207. Both the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA and OPEC have predicted that U.S. crude oil production will exceed 10 million barrels per day this year. Today IEA also made the same prediction. On the demand side, the IEA expects non-global crude oil demand to increase by 500,000 barrels per day, which is consistent with last month’s expectations. IEA pointed out that due to the healthy recovery of the global economy, international oil prices have risen by 55% since June, and rising oil prices may limit demand growth to a certain extent.
Abstract: On Monday, July 2nd, Asian markets were in early trading, the market was light, and oil prices fell slightly. Concerns about the increase in global supply may weigh on oil prices in the coming week, after oil prices fell for the third consecutive week due to new evidence of oversupply, despite Saudi promises not to flood the market with crude oil.
All in all, the price adjustment window for refined oil products opens next Monday, and if there are no surprises, there is a possibility of a slight increase. At the same time, the upward trend of international oil prices is relatively obvious. It is expected that the international oil prices may rise above 55 U.S. dollars next week, thus establishing the possibility of the last price adjustment of refined oil products before the Spring Festival.