On the one hand, the Crude oil price this weeksupply of crude oil is decreasing, on the other hand, the demand is increasing. According to Bernstein analysts, investors' strong demand for cash return on investment rather than increased capital expenditures may soon be counterproductive, as new oil reserves may not be able to keep up with demand. Any shortage of supply will lead to a surge in oil prices, which may be far greater than the peak of US$50/barrel in 2008.
Fraser said that the combination of strong production demand in the United States, high capacity utilization, and OPEC's ongoing production cuts have combined to make crude oil supply lower than the quarterly average expectations. This is also a key factor in the rise of oil prices, coupled with the tension in the Middle East, enough to suppress the negative impact of a record high in US crude oil production.
However, this logic was completely overturned last Friday, and crude oil prices also entered a downward channel. Saudi Energy Minister Falih hinted on May 25 last Friday that it would increase oil production and rebalance the price. The high oil price had obviously suppressed further demand.
The three countries whose domestic crude oil demand has been hit harder are Brazil, Mexico and Egypt. According to the International Energy Agency's forecast of 208 crude oil demand growth in emerging economies, Russia, Turkey, India and other countries still maintain a positive growth in crude oil demand, while demand in these three countries is expected to show negative growth.
Brennock said: My personal view is that it will be difficult for India and other Iranian crude oil buyers to stop importing all Iranian oil. However, after April 4, Iranian crude oil exports will drop significantly.
OPEC's de facto leaders, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, are all urging to relax the supply restrictions that have been implemented since 207. Other OPEC countries, including Iran, oppose this move, worryiCrude oil price this weekng that it will lead to a sharp drop in oil prices.
At present, the crude oil market remains strong in the physical market, and the Oman-Dubai spread has reached a new high. Due to the strong acid oil market, some refineries have switched to light oil, which has further tightened the physical market, which will further support oil prices.
The first oil currency. According to industry insiders, in the foreign exchange market, last year’s experience shows that the currencies that benefit the most from rising oil prices are: Colombian Peso COP, Norwegian Krone NOK, Canadian Dollar CAD, South African Rand ZAR, Brazilian Real BRL, Australian Dollar AUD...