China Petroleum.com.cn, June. Spot crude oil prices are fluctuating, and the OPEC meeting will be held soon. Analysts believe that high oil prices will lead to a decline in global crude oil market demand. DoBrent crude oil spot price chartes OPEC need to cut production?
According to the latest statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, the consumption of refined oil in the first half of this year was 57.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, of which gasoline and diesel increased by 7% and% respectively; and the output of refined oil was 80,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. Only from the comparison of production and sales, there is no situation where supply is less than demand. However, from a regional perspective, in the first half of this year, diesel consumption in the northern region has risen sharply. Coupled with the centralized maintenance of refineries, there is an expectation of a decline in market supply. Coupled with strong market speculation, it has pushed up oil prices, especially diesel prices.
The analysis of volatility premium shows that the price of Brent crude oil in April exceeded its last quarter and half-year average. This means that the price difference between the U.S. and Brent oil will tend to shrink in the next few weeks, leading to short-term shocks and subsequent There is a short-term upward trend.
In recent days, the U.S. dollar index has shown further strength, which may put additional pressure on oil prices in the future. Generally speaking, including oil, the price trend of US dollar-denominated commodities is generally opposite to that of the US dollar index, so the continuous surge of the US dollar index is obviously detrimental to the oil price outlook.
WTI oil prices are usually the main reason for their fluctuations. From the above analysis, Brent crude oil, due to its wider coverage and more convenient transportation, can better reflect the supply and demand of crude oil in other parts of the world except the United States. Its fluctuations are mainly related to global supply and demand and are less affected by external conditions. . However, WTI is mainly due to inland crude oil, which is restricted by transportation equipment and delivery locations, making WTI mainly reflect the supply and demand of US crude oil. At the same time, the United States has imposed an oil embargo before 205, which caused investors to be unable to make arbitrage even if there was a price difference between the two, which further exacerbated the spread of the price difference between the two. The U.S. fuel revolution in 200 caused a significant increase in U.S. crude oil production. At that time, transportation equipment was not modified in time. In addition, U.S. refineries were mainly concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico at that time. Under the condition of transportation equipment restrictions, inventory in the Cushing area of the United States surged, resulting in WTI oil prices. The Brent-WTI spread has widened sharply. With the continuous improvement of transportation infrastructure, the United States lifted the embargo on crude oil, and the Brent-WTI spread gradually narrowed.
Trump not only imposed tariffs on US$50 billion worth of products, but also imposed tariffs on traditional allies and trading partners such as the European Union, Mexico, and CaBrent crude oil spot price chartnada. These tariffs include both a 25% steel tariff and a 0% aluminum import tariff. A month before, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on these countries, but at the same time he said that he would exempt allies and that he would actively negotiate with these countries.
Varga said that Saudi Arabia's dream is difficult to realize soon, partly because there are still many idle stocks. Next year looks to be tighter than this year's supply. With the extension of production cuts in 24 oil-producing countries, 80-90 is a real possibility. Until then, a huge downward correction cannot be ruled out.
Previously, major professional organizations across the country were predicting that domestic refined oil products would be lowered due to the increase in OPEC crude oil production. Netizens have repeatedly complained about oil prices, hoping that oil prices will not drop again. Obviously, a reduction of 0.05 yuan per liter means that a full tank of gas is 2 yuan cheaper for car owners, but this slight reduction is almost meaningless to consumers. Unsurprisingly, the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday announced the reduction in refined oil products, and attached a list of the highest retail prices of gasoline and diesel in various provinces, cities and central cities across the country after the oil price adjustment.
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