I wanted to say that the oil price outlook faces three major risks, but I found that these risks are all related to the United States: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the US GDP in the third quarter, and the US government shutdown crisis. These risk events will directly affecInternational crude oil price per barrelt the direction of the rise and fall of international oil prices.
Colvin of Longview Economics predicts that because the U.S. crude oil supply is not determined by politics or the aging of oilfields - unlike other major oil producers, U.S. production can and will fill most of the supply gap.
This week will be a decisive week. The Trump administration must decide how to deal with the Iran nuclear deal. All signs indicate that Trump is trying to terminate the agreement. Restoring sanctions may reduce Iran’s oil supply by 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day, which will put the oil market in danger of supply shortages.
As the trade dispute with the United States escalated, Japan and South Korea all reported a decline in export orders in June. JPMorgan Chase said that repeated sell-offs and falling asset prices in the trade war have raised the question of how much damage tariffs will cause to the global economy.
On May, Bolton, the assistant to the US president for national security affairs, stated that the US may impose economic sanctions on EU companies that continue to trade with Iran. Some analysts believe that if European governments cannot ensure that companies doing business with Iran are not punished by the United States, these European companies may no longer engage in new trade and investment cooperation with Iran in order to avoid risks, and may even suspend the agreement reached by both parties. contract. The French energy giant Total recently issued a communiqué stating that if the company cannot obtain relevant exemptions from the US government, it will end all activities related to the 11th phase of Iran’s South Pars natural gas field before 4 this year. In this case, the actual benefits that Iran can obtain may be greatly reduced, and its willingness to continue to comply with the agreement will also decrease.
Prior to this, Li Xiangping, chairman of the board of directors and president of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group, said that domestic crude oil demand is strong, and the growth rate oInternational crude oil price per barrelf domestic crude oil production is negative month-on-month, which is far from meeting the demand growth rate. In this way, the only way to make up for the domestic production gap was to continuously increase crude oil imports. By the end of 207, the degree of foreign dependence had approached 70% to 68%. Therefore, local refineries, including central petroleum enterprises and Dongming Petrochemical, are carrying out diversified plans, and US shale oil is their key target.
The crude oil investment market is volatile and opportunities are fleeting. Flexibility is very important. If we have a profitable long position in an upward trend, we can continue to hold and expand our profit if the trend has not changed. If the trend changes, the thirty-six counts will be the top count, locking in profit. When the downtrend is short, the same is true
The Chicago Futures Price Group stated that the crude oil market is currently affected by geopolitical risks, and the supply and demand signals in the oil market are conflicting. The forces of bearish and bullishness have locked international oil prices within a certain range. It is difficult for the investment market to make any progress. It also said that the overall price of oil is bullish.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, my country’s imports of crude oil, natural gas and other products increased, of which 600 million tons of crude oil was imported, an increase of 6%, and the average import price was 29 yuan per ton, an increase of 2%; coal was 7.5 billion Tons, an increase of 5%, the average import price was 564 yuan per ton, down 4%; natural gas was 4.94 million tons, an increase of %, and the average import price rose by %. Affected by the increase in price and volume, my country's natural gas imports have increased significantly this year. In addition, the import volume of refined oil in the first July was 950,000 tons, an increase of 2%, and the average import price rose by 5%.
Crude oil investment and the stock market are part of the investment market, and their market analysis methods are similar in many places. Most investors in many long-short two-way markets have also developed from stockholders. However, because the two markets are fundamentally different in some places, for example, the stock market can only buy long, while spot crude oil investment is both Can be long or short, the stock market is not leveraged, and spot crude oil investment can be small and broad, and so on.