The report also showed that commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 250,000 barrels to 7.9 billion barrels, an U.S. crude oil export policy: background and considerationsincrease of 0.%; commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves imported 9.05 million barrels per day last week, an increase of 690,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. crude oil exports fell by 640,000 barrels per day to 260,000 barrels per day last week, and recorded a decline this week after ending the three-week continuous growth trend. Last week, domestic crude oil production was 0.9 million barrels per day, which was flat for consecutive weeks. The four-week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.89 million barrels per day, an increase of 4% over the same period last year.
In the early morning of July 4, Beijing time, data released by the American Petroleum Institute API showed that the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending June 29, which is expected to decrease by 270,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 0 million barrels. Refined oil inventories fell by 480,000 barrels, which is expected to decrease by 60,000 barrels.
There are three lines in macd. Many friends have ignored one of them. The three lines are: two fluctuating trend lines and a horizontal long and short line. The relationship between the three lines is very close and important. The functions of the three lines are: The horizontal line is an important watershed between long and short, and a criterion for market strength. No matter how the market fluctuates, the decisive battle between long and short takes place every day. Just like a waistband, the horizontal line of macd allows us to clearly know the bottom line of the market, so The horizontal line is a must-see technical signal for our crude oil trading. The two entangled fluctuation lines belong to the trend line of the market. The market price fluctuates and can fall unilaterally for several years. There will be a combination of rise and fall in any wave of decline. How to identify this combination depends on the K line alone. It's hard to understand, but through the two trend fluctuation lines of macd, it can effectively help us identify the market's downward resistance and support. Yizhen.com summarizes the principle of using macd technical indicators as follows: the trend fluctuation line is mainly bullish on the horizontal line, and the distance between the dead fork on the line and the horizontal line should be paid attention to. If it is lower than parameter 5, there will still be an upward attack. Parameter 5 has a short-term upside too fast. It must be bought in conjunction with other technical indicators, and indicators cannot be used alone. Below the horizontal line is mainly bearish.
Analysts believe that during the period from 204 to 207, the return of the oil market to balance means limiting production, stimulating demand and reducing excess inventory. But in the rest of 208 and 209, the meaning of restoring balance is exactly the opposite.
The sanctions imposed by the US team on Iran will come into effect next month, and many countries will stop importing Iranian oil. But it will not stop imports, as can be seen from the previous attitude towards the US ban. As Iranian oil may be the only buyer, Iran is likely to sell oil at a low price and also buy in large quantities.
In order to compete for the market, Saudi Arabia also proposed a preferential policy for reducing oil prices. At the beginning of August, Saudi Arabia also considered lowering its crude oil sales prices to Asian customers in August.U.S. crude oil export policy: background and considerations It is estimated that the flagship Arabian light crude oil delivered in September will also be reduced by US$40-70/barrel from August.
The OPEC meeting has been subject to political interference. Iran and Venezuela are hesitant to increase production because they feel that they are deeply hurt by the US sanctions. This can be seen from last Friday, when Suhail, Chairman of OPEC and Minister of Petroleum of the United Arab Emirates
Oil production increased by 6% last year. In the first quarter of this year, the company's output fell by 2% due to production cuts, but the company said it would increase production to the level before the cuts within two months. The company's president consultant told Russian media that the implementation of production cuts is to quickly resume production when there is no need to reduce production.
Unable to tolerate high-risk and low-paying jobs, Venezuelan oil workers quit their jobs frantically. Some of the country's national oil company's drilling rigs that produce heavy oil have been intermittently shut down due to manpower shortages. The French oil giant Total said that Venezuela’s economic crisis has severely affected oil production due to lack of electricity, water and people.