In addition, the issue of the US government’s shutdown is at a heated stage. Trump and the US Congress continue to clU.S. crude oil depositsash over whether the border wall budget is approved. In other words, although next week is the Christmas holiday, black swans are more likely to appear, and the crude oil market may be affected with turbulence.
OPEC's second largest oil producer, Iraq, reached nearly 5 million barrels per day in early 208, which clearly exceeded the 4.4 million barrels per day limit stipulated in the production reduction agreement. The Iraqi cabinet approved a plan on April 1st last Sunday to increase the country’s crude oil production capacity to 6.5 million barrels per day by 2022.
Shanxi Securities analyst Cao Lingyan pointed out that U.S. crude oil production has risen to a record level. The increase in output has enabled the United States to increase its supply of crude oil to the European market, which to some extent squeezed out Russian crude oil’s share in Europe. If Russia lifts its production reduction agreement, Oil production will increase to the level before the production reduction agreement took effect, and oil prices may have room for further fall in the future.
The production cuts of OPEC and Russia, coupled with market concerns caused by the withdrawal of OPEC member countries, will increase international oil prices, which are expected to rise to 70 US dollars per barrel. With the rise in international oil prices, the four consecutive declines in domestic refined oil prices may be suspended.
As soon as the Saudi Energy Minister’s statement was issued, oil prices fell by nearly 5%. In addition to the recent U.S. crude oil report, the U.S. EIA stocks increased by 660,000 barrels to 22.8 billion barrels as of the week of 0-9, and recorded growth for 5 consecutive weeks; API crude oil inventories increased significantly by 9.88 million barrels in the week of 0-9 To 8.4 billion barrels, an increase of 550,000 barrels is expected. The increase in Saudi production and the surge in U.S. crude oil inventories have made international oil prices declining in these days.
However, the decision to increase production in these coU.S. crude oil depositsuntries did not make oil prices fall. On the contrary, oil prices began to climb after OPEC decided to increase production. The WTI crude oil futures price in the United States hit $75/barrel on June 29, the highest oil price in 204 years.
Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important crude oil transportation channel. Iran can temporarily close the Strait by burying mines or using other secret methods. If Iran does this, it will be the first time in Iran’s history that the threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has been implemented.
In the past two years, the market has been paying attention to the increase in shale oil production in the Permian Basin in the United States, but has not noticed that the Gulf of Mexico is quietly returning. According to the energy consulting company Wood Mackenzie, oil and gas production in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico is expected to hit a record high this year, reaching 950,000 barrels per day, of which 80% is oil, which is nearly 0% higher than the record set in 2009, a year-on-year increase. %.
International pointed out that in August this year, Iranian oil exports fell by 600,000 barrels to 700,000 barrels per day to 660,000 barrels per day. As US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry approach, the situation in Iran will only get worse. SVB predicts that Iranian oil exports will fall to 800,000 barrels per day by month. This is equivalent to a drop of nearly 0 million barrels per day from April levels. The United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in May this year.